Gambling will gut you.
After years of preparation, in 2018 I finally got the courage to put down a significant amount of money along with my cousin to join the Westgate SuperContest.
Last Sunday was the first time my picks actually mattered — if I had the best gambling year of my life, I'd have a shot at splitting a $1.5 million grand prize with my cousin. I was ready to live the fantasy.
Then my picks went 1-4. Gross. Even worse, those losses came in a myriad of gut-punching ways. The Giants were an inch away from scoring a two-point conversion that would've saved me a loss, and the Steelers somehow blew a 14-point lead to the Browns to settle in a tie.
Thankfully, not all my bets were losers. We hit our moneyline underdog with the Chiefs beating the Chargers outright, an easy two-team teaser with the help of the Ravens and Vikings, and also cashed our Monday Night Chaser. Even with a brutal stretch of SuperContest picks, I survived with my bankroll intact.
There's only one thing to do after a rough week — dust yourself off, check your wallet, and charge back in.
Below are our picks for Week 2 of the Westgate SuperContest, along with some of our other favorite bets on the slate.
SuperContest Pick 1: Indianapolis Colts (+6) over Washington Redskins
Week 2 is all about avoiding overreaction, and this line looks about three points too high based on where it would've been before the Redskins big win in Arizona to start the season. I think that game spoke more to the Cardinals deficiencies than anything else, and while Indianapolis won't be world-beaters this year, they can certainly keep pace with Washington.
Andrew Luck can basically will the Colts offense to 20 points or so on his own, and the Redskins haven't won their home opener in four years.
SuperContest Pick 2: Atlanta Falcons (-6) over Carolina Panthers
Despite a disappointing performance against the Eagles in Week 1, this feels like a great spot for the Falcons to bounce back to get their 2018 campaign on track.
Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense shot themselves in the foot time and time again against Philadelphia, coming up short in the red zone on several crucial possessions. That's a testament to the Eagles defense, and while red zone struggles have been a theme for the Falcons, the Carolina defense they'll face on Sunday is not at the Eagles' level.
Atlanta hasn't lost to the Panthers at home since 2014, and with Carolina stuck recovering from several key injuries, I think the Falcons do enough to cover here.
SuperContest Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs
This is another great example of an overreaction game. The Steelers looked awful in their Week 1 tie with the Browns, blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead to a team that hadn't won a football game in close to two years. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs now possess the greatest offense the world has ever seen.
I don't buy it.
Whenever the public is all over one side of a bet, it's usually best to go the other way, especially when the public falls in love with an underdog. According to the Action Network, 75% of bettors have taken the Chiefs in this game, which is right now the most heavily bet game of the board.
Look for the Steelers to bounce back at home — I'm not saying it will be easy, but I think they figure out a way to win by a touchdown.
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