In less than 45 days, the first votes of the 2016 presidential primary will be cast.
And heading into the new year, two candidates have firmly entrenched themselves as the front-runners in their respective parties.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump finds himself in perhaps his strongest position yet, leading all national polls and surveys of the early states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. This from a candidate who was largely expected to wane as the summer, let alone fall, went on.
One GOP candidate has bitten the dust over the past month: Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina dropped out of the race on Monday, putting the Republican field at a still robust 13.
In the Democratic primary, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has continued to cement herself as the clear Democratic front-runner.
So with less than a year until Election Day 2016, here's another look at who has the best chance of making it to the White House to succeed President Barack Obama.
Our rankings are based on the Real Clear Politics averages of national polls and those in the first-voting states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. We also factor in candidates' fund-raising prowess and their momentum (or lack thereof) over the past few weeks, especially after each party's debates earlier this month.
Here's a look at where all the candidates stand.
(All poll results as of Tuesday.)
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15. George Pataki, former New York governor
From the outset, Pataki has been mostly an afterthought in the race, though he brings a strong résumé as the former governor of the Empire State.
Still, he has barely registered in national or early-state polls. And nothing has been able to jump-start his campaign: not his continued feuding with Trump, and not his performances in the lower-tier, undercard debates.
When Pataki inadvertently referred to Trump as "president" during last week's undercard debate, Trump quipped that he didn't "want his endorsement."
National polling average among Republican voters: 0.1% (13th)
Iowa: 0.2% (12th)
New Hampshire: N/A
South Carolina: N/A
STOCK: Neutral
Last month: N/A
14. Rick Santorum, Republican, former senator from Pennsylvania
It's sometimes easy to forget that Santorum won 11 states in his 2012 primary matchup with Mitt Romney, the eventual Republican nominee — including the Iowa caucus.
That's because he still hasn't even been a blip on the radar in the 2016 race.
He is facing stauncher competition this time around, and he has not solved his biggest problem from 2012: money. He raised less than $400,000 in third-quarter fund-raising and had just more than $200,000 in cash on hand, the kind of money that doesn't bode well for staying power in a crowded field.
The state that provided his biggest win in 2012, Iowa, also hasn't given him the same kind of love. Despite focusing on the Hawkeye State, he still barely registers in polling there, placing 11th in an average of recent polls. He has lingered around that level since he entered the race.
National polling average among Republican voters: 0.6% (11th)
Iowa: 0.7% (11th)
New Hampshire: N/A
South Carolina: 0.7% (12th)
STOCK: Neutral
Last month: 15
13. Martin O'Malley, Democrat, former Maryland governor
O'Malley has watched as Bernie Sanders has entrenched himself as the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton, outflanking O'Malley's attempts to outflank Clinton from the left.
Despite a vigorous campaign schedule, O'Malley is still not well known nationally, and he has been unable to boost his poll numbers even in a three-way race.
O'Malley has an accomplished progressive record as governor, with achievements — on immigration, criminal justice, same-sex marriage, and healthcare, among others — that he can legitimately tout to Democratic voters.
But he hasn't been able to break out of the doldrums. His failure to have a breakout-type moment in the third Democratic debate may have sealed his fate in the race.
National polling average among Democratic voters: 4% (3rd)
Iowa: 5% (3rd)
New Hampshire: 1.3% (3rd)
South Carolina: 3.3% (3rd)
STOCK: Falling
Last month: 13
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