Most investors know what an emerging market is. Some might even be able to offer a pretty good definition of what puts the “emerge” into emerging markets. But ask about the Middle East, and no one really knows what it is.
Geographically, it’s the region that stretches from the eastern Mediterranean and southern Turkey to the Iran-Afghan border.
The region, however, is far more complex than lines on a map. It can also be defined based on ethnic and religious bloodlines.
In the modern Middle East, the Arab world stretches from Morocco to Iraq and excludes non-Arab Muslim countries like Turkey and Iran.
If we think in terms of the Muslim world, this Middle East might stretch from Morocco to Afghanistan, south into Africa, and north into Central Asia and southeastern Europe.
The Middle East is the Arab core of the Muslim world. But thinking about the Middle East as exclusively Arab doesn’t work. Doing so excludes Turkey, Iran, and a very large Kurdish population spread across Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.
Viewing it as exclusively Muslim is also deeply flawed. It would mean focusing on just a small part of the Muslim world. It also overlooks the Jews, Christians, Druze, Yazidis, Zoroastrians, Bahai, and other religious groups in the region.
The idea of the Middle East has become quite vague. To me, it’s where perhaps the world’s most complex war is raging.
Middle Eastern countries are those that are involved in this war, one way or another. The war may metastasize into neighboring regions, but this is its heart.
As we already defined the Middle East, let’s dig deeper into its demographics and history to understand the complexity of this region.
The Middle Eastern population is concentrated in the mountains
We learned from the first map that the northern region is mountainous, while the southern area is generally lowlands. Arabs mainly populated the south—save for Israel. The higher elevations of Turkey and Iran are non-Arab.
Mountainous terrain is typically less populated than lowlands due to factors like ease of making a living. Not so in the Middle East… since much of the lowlands lack water and offer a rather inhospitable quality of life.
Overall, most of the population clusters in the mountains of Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. The other most populated areas are the eastern Mediterranean coast and the southwestern and southeastern Arabian Peninsula.
The mountainous northern region has a wide ethnic and religious diversity
Religious divisions are particularly important for understanding the Middle East, notably the division between Sunnis and Shiites. Also note the Christian and Jew mix.
In our view, conflicts begin with geography, as communities strive for security within their geography. Some people achieve security in remote mountain valleys. Others, like the Israelis caught on the lowlands without any natural barriers, are always insecure.
But an understanding of these many religious factions is not enough, as religious diversity in the Middle East is complicated by an array of ethnic subgroups.
The ethnic groups of Syria and Lebanon
The Kurds are largely Sunni Muslims. They are hostile to Arab Sunnis and Shiites.
The Druze are neither Muslim nor Christian, but can find themselves allied with either. The Druze who live in Israel, are allied with Israel.
The complexity of ethnic groups is partly due to the nature of mountainous regions, but also to the policy of the Ottomans.
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