Bob Doll, the now former chief equity strategist at BlackRock and the current chief equity strategist for Nuveen, offered ten predictions for 2012 a year ago.
"In summary, 2012 is likely to feature a slow-growth world that includes a recession in Europe," he wrote. "Should the muddle-through environment come to pass, we believe earnings and some improvement in confidence would allow equity markets to move higher, with US stocks leading the way."
So, it seems he nailed the gist of 2012. But what about the details?
We looked back at Doll's 10 prediction and gave him a score.
PREDICTION: "The European debt crisis begins to ease, even as Europe experiences a recession."
Right
In Q3, the eurozone went into recession after booking its second straight quarter of contraction. Meanwhile, stock markets are up and yields are down in the the area. E.U. leaders have put together a package that keeps Greece in the E.U. and out of bankruptcy for now.
Tally: 1.0/1.0
Source: BlackRock, Business Insider
PREDICTION: 'The U.S. economy continues to muddle through yet again.'
Right
While not a quantitative term, 'muddling through' is one of the more accurate descriptions of U.S. economic activity that we've heard. Unemployment remains high and GDP growth remains below 3 percent.
Tally: 2.0/2.0
Sources: BlackRock, Business Insider
PREDICTION: "Despite slowing growth, China and India contribute more than half of the world's economic growth."
Half Right, Half Wrong
China and India's growth rates both slowed in 2012. However, the two countries did not account for half the world's growth. In 2012, the IMF estimates the world added about $2.3 trillion in wealth via a projected growth rate of 3.3%. Of that, China contributed approximately $600 billion and India contributed about $100 billion. The two countries contributed less than half of the world's growth in 2012.
Tally: 2.5/3.0
Source: IMF
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