It's that time of year again when Wall Street's top equity strategists publish their 2013 targets for the S&P 500.
The Reformed Broker Josh Brown likes to call it "silly season" as the success of these stock market calls seem to come down to luck.
Regardless, clients demand it and it gives the rest of us a sense of who the most bullish and bearish strategists are.
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Barclay's Barry Knapp is the latest strategist to submit his target, calling for the S&P 500 to end 2013 at 1,525.
"We are entering the fifth year post ‘The Great Contraction’ with considerable progress made in deleveraging the financial and household sectors; however, the most complex stage – stabilizing public sector debt – remains a formidable challenge," writes Knapp. "There are some significant competitive advantages that should begin to accrue to the U.S. economy in the years to come – energy, manufacturing competitiveness and demographics – though the savings required to fund investment could be redirected to the public sector if policymakers do not slow the growth of mandatory spending."
Richard Bernstein, the former top strategist at Merrill Lynch, also spoke about 2013. "According to our models, the US equity market is presently discounting 5%-6% inflation for the next 12 months, which seems very extreme to us," he wrote. "We continue to believe that US equities are in the midst of a major bull market that could ultimately rival 1982's bull market."
As far as we can tell, 14 top strategists have made their 2013 calls, which range from 1,390 to 1615.
Wells Fargo Securities - 1,390
2013 EPS: $103
Strategist: Gina Martin Adams
Comments: "The U.S. economy will likely continue to struggle with the ongoing impacts of debt deleveraging in 2013, suggesting policy is likely to be the dominant driver of market sentiment for the fifth year running. However, there is evidence that global deleveraging is progressing along to a new phase in its evolution. The first four years of the process were characterized by private sector debt reduction, the vast majority of which was absorbed by public coffers. Now, as the private sector unwind of debt nears completion, the onus is shifting to the public sector to address bloated debt balances in the year ahead."
Source: UBS
UBS - 1,425
2013 EPS: $108
Strategist: Jonathan Golub
Comments: "Our cautious stance is predicated upon a belief that a number of macro uncertainties — the most important of which stem from long-term U.S. fiscal imbalances — will hamper earnings growth and constrain valuations in 2013. ... [O]ur sense is that the most important structural issues will be pushed off into the future, leaving significant uncertainty about the long-term direction of the economy and corporate profits."
Source: UBS
Morgan Stanley - 1,434
2013 EPS: $98.71
Strategist: Adam Parker
Comments: "We recommend increasing China exposure, as China-centric US equities have lagged and are cheap vs. US-centric equities"
Source: Morgan Stanley
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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