Doug Kass Predicted 15 Big Surprises For 2012 — Here's How They Did

Every year, Doug Kass releases a comprehensive and ambitious list of surprises for the upcoming year.

As in previous years, his 2012 calls covered everything from politics to global macroeconomics to market technicals.

We went through and scored each of his predictions.

This year they were challenging for him, but that's only because he's so creative in calling out long shots that are intriguing.

PREDICTION: "The U.S. stock market approaches its all-time high in 2012"

Half Right

Directionally, Kass's call has been correct.  The S&P 500 surged to a high of 1,474.  But it's still well below the all-time high of 1,527.

Score: 0.5/15

PREDICTION: "The growth in the U.S. economy accelerates as the year progresses"

Half Right

Real GDP growth decelerated to +1.3% in Q2 from Q1’s upwardly revised 2.0%. Q3 GDP has picked up to 2.7%. 

However, economists are now expecting deceleration in Q4 as global economic and political uncertainty drags on growth.

Score: 1.0/15

PREDICTION: "Former Presidents Bill Clinton and George Bush form a bipartisan coalition that persuades both parties to unite in addressing our fiscal imbalances"

Wrong

This seems like a good idea, but it has not come to fruition. President Obama has taken on a much more involved role in negotiating a resolution to the fiscal cliff.

Score: 1.0/15

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