Blackstone Vice Chairman Byron Wien has a long history of guessing what could surprise us in the upcoming year. He's posted a list every year since 1986, which includes his time at Morgan Stanley.
"My definition of a surprise is a market-influencing event that the average investor would assign only a one-out-of-three chance of taking place during the year," writes Wien.
Typically, around half of his surprises actually happen.
We've checked Wien's 2012 surprises, and we've given him an above-average score of 50.3 percent.
Some of his surprises were spot on. Some were dead wrong. And some were worthy of partial credit.
Oil prices decline to $85 a barrel.
RIGHT
Wien really hit the nail on the head with this call, correctly forecasting the price drop due to increase share of shale and less dependency on oil from the Middle East. After a brief spike in early 2012, oil prices hit $85/barrel and reached a low of $77.72 on June 28. Currently, the price per barrel hovers from $85 to $90.
Tally: 1.0/1.0
Source: St. Louis Fed
S&P 500 heads above 1400.
RIGHT
The S&P 500 started the year below 1300, but eclipsed 1400 in March before reaching a high of 1465.77 in mid-September.
Tally: 2.0/2.0
Source: Yahoo Finance
Real GDP growth exceeds 3 percent, unemployment drops below 8 percent.
HALF RIGHT
In the third quarter, unemployment managed to break through the 8% barrier, making half of Wien's prediction come true. However, GDP growth remains mired below 3%.
Tally: 2.5/3.0
Source: Y Charts
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