Goldman's Jim O'Neill Predicted 11 Surprises For 2012 — Here's How They Did

A year ago, Goldman's Jim O'Neill predicted 11 surprises for 2012.

"One thing for sure we can say about 2012 is that there will be no shortage of things to think about," he wrote. 

"In some ways, for the discerning analyst and the ambitious alpha generating fund manager, you couldn’t wish for a better environment. The only dilemma is that it is probably quite easy to get something(s) wrong!"

We scored O'Neill's surprises and found that he spent most of the year being right than wrong.

#1 We won't talk about Europe quite as much

WRONG

This one is a bit hard to measure. But the bottom line is that Europe continued to be a big deal in 2012. "With a bit of luck, it might go back to being as dull as it usually is," said O'Neill a year ago.  An argument can be made that the crisis has receded, but it's far from dull.

Score: 0.0/1.0

#2 Italy and the EMU do not survive with Italy's 6-7 percent 10-year yield

BASICALLY RIGHT

Thanks to the extraordinary efforts of Italy's Mario Monti and the ECB's Mario Draghi, 10-year yields are down, and the EMU hasn't fallen apart...just yet.

Score: 1.0/2.0

#3 Euro falls against the US dollar

RIGHT

"The Euro is more likely to reach 1.10 next year, rather than 1.50. I doubt it will see both, and it might not see either, but 1.10 is more likely than 1.50," predicted O'Neill.

Directionally, he was correct as the euro spent most of the year below where it started than above.  It got as low as $1.20, but no higher than $1.34.

Score: 2.0/3.0

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