Experts Told Us These Were The 5 Most Reliable Chinese Economic Indicators

China has long been accused of manipulating its economic data. Chinese vice premiere Li Keqiang, who is expected to take over from premiere Wen Jiabao, even said according to a Wikileaks report that the nation's GDP numbers were made up.

Recently, New York Times reporter Keith Bradsher wrote an extensive feature on just how much Chinese "local and provincial officials are falsifying economic statistics to disguise the true depth of the troubles."

So how are we supposed to know what's really going on in the Chinese economy?

We reached out to top China economists who pointed us to five Chinese economic indicators that were unlikely to be manipulated.

Export and import data can be verified by cross-checking with data from its trading partners

Many analysts point to the reliability of export and import data because it can be independently verified by comparing it with trade numbers reported by other countries.

Societe Generale's Wei Yao has previously argued that, "another advantage of import data is that they are subject to less statistical and ad hoc adjustments than industrial production and GDP, since their consistency can be cross checked relatively easily with the data from China’s major trading partners".

The official and HSBC PMI numbers generally match the true growth numbers

Chinese HSBC purchasing manager's index (PMI) and official PMI are said to be fairly reliable. The relative weakness in the HSBC PMI number has been attributed to the fact that it is more exposed to small-and-medium enterprises.

Moody's analyst Alaistair Chan writes that they are "based on surveys and generally match other indicators of activity, such as industrial production and GDP" and therefore are more reliable.

Rail freight traffic may be prone to error, but not manipulation

Li Keqiang, China's future premier, who was revealed to have said that the GDP number is "man-made" in a Wikileaks report has said that rail cargo data which is less closely watched is a far more reliable indicator.

"Rail freight is useful because it is a measure of actual goods moving across the country, which is a proxy for industrial activity," according to Chan. "It is not weighted (like industrial production), which can introduce error because it measures gross weight of freight, with no distinction between say coal and cars. But it is fairly accurate and not prone to manipulation."

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