After staring at an extremely narrow path to Electoral College victory just two weeks ago, Mitt Romney has overtaken President Barack Obama in several national polls and is closing the gap in most swing states as well.
Still, Romney faces a daunting challenge. As it stands now, all plausible paths to 270 votes will run through Ohio.
New York Times stat guru Nate Silver gives Ohio a 40.4 percent chance to be the election's "tipping point" state, about 24 percent higher than any other state.
Assuming Romney can hold on to Florida and its 29 electoral votes — the latest polls show him tied with Obama, on average — the must-win will be Ohio.
First, here's the electoral map without filling in the nine most common "battleground states." Obama goes in with a 237-191 advantage.
Now here's the map if Ohio goes blue. Obama leads 255-191.
Even if Florida goes to Romney, things would be much simpler for Obama if he wins Ohio. He get to 270 this way...
Virginia = 13 electoral votes
Iowa = 6 electoral votes
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