According to the International Monetary Fund, there is a 1 in 6 chance that global growth dips below 2% in 2013, which would throw advanced economies back into a recession.
But the IMF’s recently released World Economic Outlook, which includes economic growth forecasts for 185 countries, wasn’t completely negative.
We selected 20 countries with the highest projected compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2013 through 2017, based on the IMF’s estimates.
None of these countries are located in the Western Hemisphere – all are from Africa or Asia – which underscores that global economic growth will be driven by emerging markets and developing economies.
A cautionary note – this isn’t a list of the world’s best economies, or countries with the highest standards of living. Many of these countries start with extremely low levels of GDP, and as such have an easier time attaining a high growth rate over this selected period.
Some features of these countries:
- 10 are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, 8 in Asia (2 from the Commonwealth of Independent States), and 2 from the Middle East/North Africa;
- 10 are underdeveloped, as evidenced by little infrastructure and mass subsistence farming;
- 8 rely upon oil or gas as a key export; and
- 7 have law and order, corruption, or security issues as impediments to growth.
#20: Rwanda
Est. 2012 GDP: +7.70%
Est. 2013 GDP: +7.50%
Est. 2013-2017
GDP CAGR: +8.23%
Economy: Rwanda has an easier time attaining high growth rates due to its low starting GDP, relative to developed European economies or the United States. Over 90% of the workforce is engaged in subsistence farming. The Rwandan government has invested in information technology as well as education in efforts to promote sustainable economic growth.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, CIA World Handbook
#19: The Gambia
Est. 2012 GDP: -1.62%
Est. 2013 GDP: +9.66%
Est. 2013-2017
GDP CAGR: +8.35%
Economy: Gambia has few natural resources and an underdeveloped agricultural sector. The country is reliant upon transfer payments from abroad and foreign aid. Its position on this list is due to low base GDP, which artificially skews growth projections upwards relative to other nations. Tourism, particularly eco-tourism, is booming.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, CIA World Handbook
#18: Cambodia
Est. 2012 GDP: +6.45%
Est. 2013 GDP: +6.68%
Est. 2013-2017
GDP CAGR: +8.46%
Economy: Cambodian textiles amount to over 70% of the nation’s exports. Recent oil discoveries and continued development of mineral resources will have a positive impact on GDP growth. Educating and creating jobs for Cambodian youth is paramount to the country’s long term development – the majority of its population is under 25 years old.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, CIA World Handbook
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