Right now, the RealClearPolitics state poll aggregation indicates that President Obama is slated to score 290 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 248.
That's not the full story, though. Because of errors in polling, or a strong Get Out The Vote operation on either side, the polls could be off by a number of points in either direction.
To figure out what that could mean either way, here is a sensitivity analysis showing what the map looks like if the polls are off in the states by different margins.
First, see what the map looks like if Mitt Romney outperforms the polling by five points in every state. Clicking through, check out what happens as that performance slows to a four point beat and so on. Then, see the what happens if Obama incrementally outperforms the polls.
If Romney beats the polls by 5 points, he'll win with 337 electoral votes.
If he beats by four points, Romney loses Wisconsin but still gets 327 electoral votes.
If he beats the polls by 3 points, Romney loses Michigan and Pennsylvania but still wins with 291 electoral votes.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider