You've probably heard by now that the presidential election will come down to a handful of battleground states, which have absorbed the bulk of the money and time in the candidates' quest to cobble together the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
But just because a state is a battleground doesn't mean the whole state swings. Within each of these states — Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire — the race will likely be decided by a small number of counties, local campaign war zones that, in a very tight race, have the potential to determine which way the whole state — and possibly the whole election — swings.
In each of the eight swing states, we've identified one county that went to George W. Bush in 2004, swung to Obama in 2008, and could now make or break the 2012 election for either candidate. We've broken down the list here, along with the voting patterns, economic conditions, and other key factors that could decide how the counties swing on Tuesday night.
Wood County, Ohio
Voting Record: Wood County voters don't pick parties, they pick winners. Residents of this suburban Toledo County have voted for the eventual winner in every presidential election since at least 1980. In 2004, Bush won the county over John Kerry, 53% to 47%; in 2008, Obama beat John McCain 52% to 46%, mirroring the national margin.
County Snapshot: When the candidates talk about saving the "middle class," they are talking about Wood County. Median income in the county is $53,298, slightly higher than the $52,000 national average, and just over half of adults have some type of college education. Wood County is 95 percent white, which puts Obama at a demographic disadvantage, but recent polls indicate he could make up the gap by turning out female voters.
Local Economy: Improving. A gradual economic upswing and voter support for the 2009 auto bailout could give Obama a much-needed boost in this bellwether. The largest private-sector employer in the county is Chrysler, which plans to add 1,100 jobs at its Jeep plant in Perrysburg next year. Wood County's unemployment rate was 6.3 percent in September, down from 7.9 a year earlier.
X-Factor:Auto Bailout. The results of the election in Wood County will be a good indicator of how badly Romney has been hurt by his opposition to the auto bailout. In a last-ditch effort to get rid of this thorn in his side, the Romney campaign launched a series of misleading ads that falsely suggested that Chrysler was moving its Jeep production to China, a move that has been widely panned by pundits, reporters, and the company itself. We'll find out Tuesday if the people of Toledo felt the same way.
Sources: Ohio Secretary of State, Wood County Board of Elections, BLS, ODOD
Henrico County, Virginia
Voting Record: A longtime bastion of Southern conservatism, Henrico County has morphed into the state's swing-y-est county over the last decade. Bush won the county by 8 points in 2004; in 2008, Obama beat McCain here 56% to 44%, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to win in Henrico since Lyndon B. Johnson. The county swung back to red in 2009, though, supporting Republican Bob McDonnell in Virginia's gubernatorial race.
County Snapshot: Henrico's electoral shift is primarily due to demographic changes and population growth in this once-predominantly white, exurban Richmond county. African-Americans now make up 30% of the population, up from less than 25% in 2000; the county's Latino population has exploded 132% since 2000; and Asians now make up 6.3% of the county's population, up from 3.6% in 2000. CNN's Peter Hamby points out that the result is a county that looks like a cross-section of the entire state, with a mix of moderates, liberals, social conservatives, and suburban swing voters.
As a result, voter turnout is crucial to winning Henrico County. The Obama team has the advantage of experience here, but Republicans have stepped up their game since 2008. And half of the county lies in the district of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who is under a lot of pressure to deliver for the GOP.
Local Economy: Good. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in September, down from 6.3% the year before and far below the national average. Despite the downturn, the area has experienced a boom in healthcare and education sectors.
X-Factor:The Senate race. Former Virginia Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine and former Republican Gov. George Allen, are locked in one of the tightest contests in the country, and strong Henrico County turnout for either candidate could affect the outcome of the presidential race there. Both candidates have won Henrico in previous elections, but Kaine, the former mayor of Richmond, probably has the advantage.
Sources: Henrico County Registrar, U.S. Census, BLS
Brown County, Wisconsin
Voting Record: Brown County, home to Green Bay, is one of Wisconsin's most purple counties. Brown voters voted for Obama over McCain, 54% to 45% in 2008, after backing Bush in 2000 and 2004. But the county flipped back in Wisconsin's 2010 gubernatorial election, giving Republican Scott Walker 56% of the vote. And in June, an astounding 75% of Brown voters turned out for the gubernatorial recall election, giving Walker a 20-point win in the county.
County Snapshot: Brown County is ground-zero for Walker-Obama voters. The blue-collar county is 90% white, with a median household income of $52,553, just above the national average. About 25% of voters have college degrees.
It is not yet clear where the Obama-Walker voter's loyalties will lie in 2012. National polls show that Obama has lost support among non-college-educated white voters, but also indicate that these voters aren't totally sold on Romney either.
Local Economy: Could be worse. Like many parts of the industrial Midwest, Brown County struggled with the decline in manufacturing, but has seen gradual improvement over the past several years. The regional economy has also become increasingly diversified, with growing healthcare and insurance industries. The county's September unemployment rate was 5.6%, lower than the state and national averages.
X-Factor: The vice presidents. Neither Obama nor Romney is particularly good at relating to the "everyman" voter, so the campaigns have frequently dispatched their No. 2s to Green Bay. Vice President Joe Biden was Obama's secret weapon with Catholic, blue-collar voters, but he may have met his match in native son Paul Ryan, a Packers fan from Janesville. So in the final days of campaigning, the Obama campaign brought in its ringer, former president Clinton, to seal the deal.
Source: Brown County Clerk, U.S. Census, Wisconsin DWD, Green Bay Chamber of Commerce
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