Patton Boggs, one of the top lobbying firms in D.C., has released its forecast for what it expects will happen in the nation's Capitol this year now that President Barack Obama has been re-elected.
The forecast tackles the big questions, including who gets the jobs opening up in Obama's Cabinet and what will happen with the fiscal cliff for instance.
Here's what they predict will happen as Obama enters his second term.
Don't expect a fiscal cliff resolution until after Christmas
The firm says that nothing is probably going to happen on the fiscal cliff until November 26.
Until then, expect posturing and public interactions so the parties can determine the lay of the land.
The firm writes:
Attention now will turn to the lame duck session that will formally get underway the week of November 12 but won’t likely get down to business until the week of November 26.
The firm also expects that a solution — which could either be a plan to buy time, or some sort of fiscal deal up front — probably won't happen until after Christmas, cutting this very close to the wire.
Source: Patton Boggs 2012 Post-Election Analysis
Expect the "Gang Of Eight" to come up with a fiscal cliff proposal loosely based on the Bowles-Simpson Plan
Patton Boggs points out that the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of Eight" has been furiously planning for the fiscal cliff, and has even convened with former deficit commission heads Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles to talk about a deal based off their recommendations.
According to Patton Boggs, the group of four Republican and four Democratic Senators is working on "a framework for a deficit reduction plan comprised of spending cuts, tax reform, and changes to entitlement programs that is reportedly modeled after the $4 trillion proposal the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform."
Source: Patton Boggs 2012 Post-Election Analysis
... but don't expect it to succeed
The report goes on to observe that "prior 'Gang' proposals have not had a history of success," and that there's no guarantee that the bipartisan group can find some middle ground.
Via the report:
"In order to reach agreement on such a plan, however, Republicans and Democrats must be willing
to work together and compromise. Leading up to the election, President Obama reiterated his threat
to veto any proposal that does not increase tax rates on the wealthy. [...] Despite his re-election,
the election was too close to be considered a mandate."
Source: Patton Boggs 2012 Post-Election Analysis
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