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Here's what 23 top forecasters are predicting for Friday's jobs report

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November 4 COTD 2015

As we close in on Friday's US jobs report, Wall Street's top economists are weighing in with their expectations for payroll growth and the unemployment rate.

The consensus expectation is for the economy to have added 182,000 jobs in October, bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.0% from 5.1% in September.

In recent months, the US economy has been defined by two stories: 1) deterioration in industries exposed to slowing overseas economies and falling commodity prices, and 2) growth in industries exposed to the healthy US consumer. A proxy for this story has been the divergence in the ISM manufacturing and services indices, the former being more exposed to overseas activity whereas the latter is more exposed to domestic activity. Economists expect this theme to be reflected in the jobs report.

"In manufacturing, the ISM’s employment index has deteriorated in recent months; while the non-manufacturing ISM survey suggests a more elevated level of hiring," BNP Paribas economists said. "We see little reason for this to change significantly this month."

This upcoming jobs report has also taken on increasing importance as it is one of the central components to the Federal Reserve's decision whether or not to raise interest rates at its upcoming December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. A rate hike in December would signal the end of extremely loose, crisis-era, zero-interest rate policy, which the Fed introduced in December 2008 in its effort to stimulate the economy out of the the financial crisis.

We rounded up what 23 economists are saying ahead of Friday's report. Check out all the forecasts below.

Paul Mortimer-Lee, BNP Paribas

Non-Farm Payroll Gains: 150,000

Unemployment Rate: 5.1%

Comment: "Our below-consensus forecast is well-placed given the downside risks presented by seasonal trends, a typical seasonally-adjusted print for October (relative to August and September), the soft end to Q3, and the likely composition of hiring (weak external-facing and soft domestic-facing)."



Ethan Harris, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

Non-Farm Payroll Gains: 150,000

Unemployment Rate: 5.1%

Comment: "There should be weakness in the manufacturing industry, as evidenced by the early regional surveys, and mining jobs likely continued to contract amid low energy prices. On the upside, construction and service jobs should show further growth owing to healthy housing and consumer demand supporting these sectors. There have been consistently strong gains in government payrolls over the last four months heading into the new school year, so we may see some payback this month leading to a drag on overall nonfarm payrolls."



Scott Brown, Raymond James

Non-Farm Payroll Gains: 155,000

Unemployment Rate: 5.1%

Comment: "I’m at +155,000, but wouldn’t be surprised to see anything between +100,000 and +250,000.  The numbers are reported accurate to ±105,000 (if the true change were +180,000, a 90% confidence interval would be +75,000 to +285,000).  In addition to statistical noise, there is seasonal adjustment uncertainty (start of the school year, end of the summer travel season).  We can expect to have added about a million jobs in October prior to seasonal adjustment – so it’s a bit silly to worry about the nearest 20,000 or 30,000 in the adjusted figure.  A lot of month-to-month noise can be reduced by looking at the three-month average, but the financial markets will focus on the headline payroll figure.   There’s a good chance for a surprise and we could see revisions.

The Federal Reserve is not going to react to any one piece of economic data, and there will be another employment report in four weeks, but the message from the Fed (FOMC policy statement, Yellen comments) is that a December rate hike is likely unless the economic data are significantly softer than expected."



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

15 more cartoons that perfectly describe life in Silicon Valley

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Liz Fosslien

Liz Fosslien is a freelance designer who previously worked at Genius. Now she runs a cartoon blog that jokes about Silicon Valley's unique culture.

People seem to like her work — we published some of her cartoons in August — and now she even has her own online store.

Here are 15 more of Fosslien's cartoons that only people who are familiar with Silicon Valley's culture will understand.

SEE ALSO: 17 cartoons that perfectly describe life in Silicon Valley

Startup advice doesn't apply in every situation.



Useful when establishing a social-media presence.



If you torture the data enough, it will say what you want.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

You can now add Harry Potter to SeaWorld's list of problems (SEAS)

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SeaWorld reported another underwhelming quarter Thursday.

Attendance was down year-over-year. And while revenue and profits were up from the third quarter, both missed analysts' expectations and the year-to-date profits were still down.

This sent the stock spiraling down as much as 12% before recovering losses.

The company has been getting hammered for awhile, starting in 2013 with the release of the documentary "Blackfish," which brought attention to supposed poor living conditions of the company's signature orca whales.

During the company's quarterly earnings call, both CEO Joel Manby and CFO Peter Crage presented 4 reasons for the more recent poor performance.

SEE ALSO: One Direction's Harry Styles is a nightmare for SeaWorld's Brand

1. Harry Styles

The biggest issue that SeaWorld has run into over the past few months has been public backlash. The company has been dealing with negative sentiment since the release of Blackfish, but according to Credit Suisse's tracking it reached a fever pitch this summer.

Negative mentions spiked after boy band One Direction's Harry Styles called for a boycott of the brand at a concert in San Diego, and that has lead to an attendance drag.

While Crage and Manby never called out Styles directly, for the second earnings call in a row he mentioned poor brand image in California.

"We believe the decline in attendance in California was related to our continued challenges with the SeaWorld brand in that state," said Crage. "As Joel mentioned, we are addressing these issues through our ongoing reputation and fact-sharing campaign."

While the company doesn't break out individual parks attendance, according to Manby, the decline in attendance across the parks was caused by steep declines in California and one other state, Texas.



2. Hurricane Joaquin and the weather

Weather is a common refrain when executives talk about drags on business that operate outdoors. For the SeaWorld executives, they pinpointed two particular meteorological events.

For Texas, which was the other drag on third quarter attendance according to Manby, it was one weekend storm.

"So that was if you recall just a couple of weeks ago they had the big rain that came up through Mexico, Patricia and then ultimately spread into Texas," said Chief Accounting Officer Marc Swanson. "So, unfortunately that closed the park on the Saturday before Halloween which traditionally can be one of your biggest Halloween days of the season."

Hurricane Joaquin, the Category 5 storm that worried much of the East Coast in October, was evidently a drag on a large number of parks.

"And then prior to that, a couple of weeks before that we had the Joaquin remnants that were going up the East Coast. You probably recall that," said Swanson. "That also impacted our park in Williamsburg and our park in Langhorne, Pennsylvania. And again, both of those were closures of the Halloween event."

During an earnings call on October 20, Six Flags CEO James Reid-Anderson was also asked about the weather.

"I think with regard to weather, we've said consistently that by the time you get through a year, weather tends to equalize out," he said. "And we certainly feel like that's the case, John, do you want? So no real effect one way or the other from a weather perspective."



3. Harry Potter

One question from an analyst was regarding SeaWorld's Orlando park and the impact of the stronger dollar on tourists from abroad coming to the park.

According to Manby, it's not so much the foreign exchange issue dragging down the park. It's a certain fictional wizard's attraction in neighboring Universal Studios.

"Now on the international front, to your question, we have admitted in the past and I think the data would show that we are losing some share in international to our competitors," said Manby. "However, at a broad level we think it's because, frankly, in Orlando, it's Harry Potter for the most part. We are going to continue our efforts there, and it is broadly about 15% of our business."

Going forward, Manby said SeaWorld will try to position themselves as a "value" alternative to Disney and Universal Studios.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

The 15 best productivity apps in the world

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TI_Graphics_productivity breakout_3x4Tech Insider has combed the far reaches of the App Store to bring you the 100 best and most innovative apps in the world.

Now it's time to take a look at the best productivity apps out there. These 15 apps will make your life easier and help you get things done.

Slack is where you communicate with your coworkers.

Think of Slack like the modern equivalent of an internet chat room that eliminates the need for email. Log in to communicate with your colleagues in public channels or private groups, share files, and more.

The app is geared toward businesses large and small that need a way for their employees to communicate internally, and it’s hugely popular. Other apps and services can integrate directly with Slack too, which makes it kind of like a command center for getting stuff done at work.

Thousands of companies use Slack, including Tech Insider. Your team should be using it too.

Price: Free
Available on:iOS, Android, web



Outlook is an email app for getting things done.

Leave it to Microsoft to take one of the most despised corporate email platforms, Exchange, and give it one of the best mobile email apps.

Thanks to its acquisition of the email app Acompli late last year, the Microsoft Outlook app has become quite good. It integrates with Exchange (of course), Office 365, Outlook.com, Apple’s iCloud, Gmail, and Yahoo Mail. There’s a built-in calendar view, quick access to files stored in attachments, and some smart filters that once you use, you find hard to live without.

It's simply the best email app you can use.

Price: Free
Available on:iOS, Android



1Password

It seems like there’s another massive customer data breach every day, and it’s more important than ever to make sure your passwords are not only strong but also unique for each service you use.

The problem with passwords is that they can be easy to forget, especially if you have more than a few, which you should.

But thankfully there's 1Password. It's the best app for managing your web logins and sensitive information. It has a user-friendly interface and it's available on whatever device you have with you at the moment, whether it be your desktop, phone, or even Apple Watch.

1Password will generate secure passwords for you and fill them in on websites using its free Safari and Google Chrome extensions.

Price: Free, but there's an optional upgrade with more features for $9.99.
Available on:iOS, Android



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Seattle’s disgustingly awesome 'gum wall' is about to get melted away

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For 20 years, visitors to Seattle's famous Pike's Place Market have been sticking gum to what has become simply known as "The Gum Wall." 

Like everything else that's beautiful, it's about to die. On Tuesday, to be precise.

Here are a few images of what we're losing.

The Gum Wall is in the heart of Seattle's tourist district.



It's beside the Pike's Place market.



That's the place where presidential candidates try to catch fish.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

The fast-rising career of 26-year-old Brie Larson, 'Room' star and Hollywood's new 'it girl'

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brie larson dimitrios kambouris getty

Brie Larson has been working in the industry since she was in diapers, but the star of the Oscar-buzzworthy drama "Room" (out in wide release Friday) is just now starting to become a known name among moviegoers.

With her incredible acting talent and cheerful personality, she is on the fast track to the kind of stardom that graced Jennifer Lawrence and friend Shailene Woodley before her.

Get to know more about this rising actress here.

SEE ALSO: 8 TV shows you're not watching that you should be

Brianne Sidonie Desaulniers was born in Sacramento, California, in 1989 and has a younger sister.

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She moved with her mother to Los Angeles during her childhood after her parents separated.

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Brie began acting and changed her last name to "Larson" as her surname was too difficult to pronounce.

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This staircase and plant-filled building is designed to be the healthiest workplace in the world

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HASSELL medibank australia

The goal of the newly designed Medibank building in Melbourne, Australia is to be the healthiest workplace in the world for employees.

The over 150,000-square-foot building was completed in 2014 by the architecture firm Hassell, which decorated the interior with bright colors, lots of staircases, an exercise court, and lots and lots of plants. 

The design is meant to keep employees moving, engaged with one another, and happy in the office.

"The new workplace was part of a major cultural change program for Australia’s largest health insurer Medibank to live its purpose to the core and create better health outcomes for its members, employees and the community," according to Hassell's description.

Keep scrolling to see the redesigned space.

Welcome to the Medibank building in Melbourne, Australia.



It's meant to make workers healthier and happier, "encouraging movement, flexibility, freedom of choice, creativity, interaction, and engagement."

Source:HASSELL



The building was designed by the architecture firm Hassell and completed in 2014. The company focused on bright colors, curved stairways, and creating a positive work environment.

Source:HASSELL



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This re-creation of Vienna in 'Minecraft' will blow your mind

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Ever been to Vienna? Yeah, us neither. It looks pretty great, but flights are expensive and we're intimidated by its long history of classical music composers (and their hairdos, if we're being honest).

Thankfully, an enterprising group of "Minecraft" fans are re-creating the city of Vienna. Even better, they're creating the replica at scale, 1:1, as if you were actually there.

Don't believe us? See for yourself:

Join us for much more below!

An amber-hued pixel sky over "Minecraft" Vienna.



The water has a gorgeous blue shimmer — no wonder it's known as the "Blue Danube!"



Here's a shot of St. Stephen's cathedral, looking pixelated.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

DEUTSCHE BANK: Here are 32 great stocks to buy right now

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black bass fish fishing lake scenery

With the bull market now 6 1/2 years old, some of Wall Street's investing pros warn that it's a good time to begin preparing for an eventual end to the bull market.

Others think that you can stay bullish, but they recommend having greater exposure to some industries than others.

"We believe Energy and Industrial positions should generally be reduced heading into yearend as operating disappointments are likely through 1Q16, in favor of over weights on Health Care and consumer exposed Tech companies and select Financials and Consumer companies," Deutsche Bank's David Bianco wrote in a note to clients Sunday.

Bianco offered a list of the big companies to invest in for the upcoming year. They're all rated Buy by Deutsche Bank analysts. We've compiled that list, which features companies with market caps over $10 billion, price-to-earnings ratios below 22, and positive 2015 earnings per share growth.

The companies are assembled below by industry, along with Deutsche Bank's price target, the company's share price when the note was published, the company's price-to-earnings based on 2015 earnings per share, and Deutsche's 2016 projections for earnings per share growth. Additionally, for the companies that have reported Q3 earnings, we've pulled a quote from an executive during the earnings conference call if available.

Check out the stock picks below.

Bank of America

Ticker: BAC

Industry: Banks

Price Target: $19

Current Price: $17.09

Current P/E: 12.1

Projected 2016 EPS Growth: 10%

Executive Comment: "So, in the context of the environment we faced, we are operating what we feel is a solid quarter, and as evidenced, the continuing progress on our strategy, our strategy of responsible growth with our customs,"said CEO Brian Moynihan.



JP Morgan Chase

Ticker: JPM

Industry: Banks

Price Target: $72

Current Price: $65.21

Current P/E: 10.9

Projected 2016 EPS Growth: 3%

Executive Comment: "We continue to invest in our businesses and the underlying drivers are growing strongly and we're gaining share. And we have more than successfully delivered against each of our capital, balance sheet and expense targets,"said CFO Marianne Lake.



Keycorp

Ticker: KEY

Industry: Banks

Price Target: $16

Current Price: $13.38

Current P/E: 12.3

Projected 2016 EPS Growth: 10%

Executive Comment: "The other thing that we've said before about our business model that I think is really important is when there is a little bit of dislocation in the market, we feel like that's a great opportunity for us because there are certain shops that are focused on one product, the ability to go to one market,"said Chris Gorman, president of corporate banking. "And as we think about serving our clients and we can look broadly across markets, we think when there is a little dislocation and everything isn't flashy and green, that's a nice opportunity for us to really come in and serve our clients."



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

Nobody on the internet can figure out what this machine is — can you?

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City of MesaA machine has been found in a field in Arizona, and nobody seems to be able to tell what it does.

The 1,000-pound machine was discovered by road workers in September and brought back to the Mesa, Arizona, transportation department, according to Atlas Obscura.

The department tried for weeks to identify what it is, but they weren't able to and are now asking the public for help.

Here are some clues:

  1. It is made of solid steel.
  2. It has metal tags that say "Set bottom of scale to top punch entry,""Upper punch penetration," and, "Tablet thickness."
  3. It has wheels with numbers engraved in them.
  4. It appears to be custom made.

Some people have guessed that it's part of a tablet press used for manufacturing drugs — pills — or a progressive printing press, the transportation department told Business Insider. Those are still just guesses, however, and the transportation department is working to verify those claims.

Here are photos of the machine:







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Cutting-edge technology is revealing how athletes' bodies work — and will transform sports forever

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Everton FC soccer football

Today's professional athletes are faster and stronger than ever

Top athletes in individual sports possess physical characteristics that make them uniquely suited to excel (picture Usain Bolt or Michael Phelps), and teams are built up of players with special skills and strength that make them some of the only people in the world capable of handling their roles.

But with players that are stronger and more specialized than ever, two things happen: Figuring out the work that's needed to unlock further performance gains become more difficult than ever, and with athletes pushing themselves to unprecedented levels of exertion, preventing injuries caused by overtraining or improper training is essential.

That's where the latest in sports science comes into play.

Companies are using everything from machine learning to three-dimensional biomechanical scanning to track the individual movements, strengths, and weaknesses of athletes. They're using that data to devise individual training plans that help coaches know when an athlete needs to take a break or when they need to adjust a workout to strengthen a player who might be susceptible to injury.

Tech Insider spoke with Stephen Smith, the founder and CEO of Kitman Labs, one of the specialized companies that's using research-supported new technology to optimize performance, in order to understand how the latest sports science can help athletes excel. They work with teams ranging from the NFL's Miami Dolphins to the English Premier League's Everton FC.

"Everybody is unique in how they respond to different stress and stimulus," so they can't all follow the exact same training programs, says Smith. Since every person responds to stresses differently, Kitman has designed both software and hardware that help develop ideal training programs for each individual. 

On the hardware side, Kitman uses a modified Xbox Kinect to scan athletes.

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Specialized software calculates what's going on in places where the camera isn't facing.

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The system can track deviations in motion that are imperceptible to the naked eye.

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This shape-shifting robot is made out of other robots

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CellRobot

Anyone may be able to build their own customizable robot in the near future. 

The Chinese company KEYi Technology has created a modular bot called CellRobot, which enables users to combine a bunch of independent, spherical bots to form one smartphone-controlled robot.

When the spheres are combined, the robot can do anything from walk around your living room, push objects, and even hang on a railing and survey your street.

The CellRobot has a central heart that allows you to control your robot construction with a tablet or smartphone. The heart consists of a charge port, screen, and sound hole. 

Each sphere, or cell, comes with a connector face and indicator light. When connected to the heart, each cell can be moved in any direction you wish.

You can also add special cells, called XCells, that allow you to add different features to your robot. For example, an XCell could be a rubber tire or a camera.

The CellRobot is an open platform so others can create their own XCells.

KEYi Technology launched a Kickstarter campaign for its CellRobot and has so far raised $36,050 of its $75,000 goal with 25 days to go. Backers who pledge $179 will get a heart, two cells, and two wheels, with the option of purchasing different XCells.

Those who choose to give more will receive extra cells, wheels, and connectors based on how much they donate. So if you really want 100 robots made into one, it'll come at a hefty price.

Check out all the innovative things the CellRobot can do:

You can combine a bunch of cells to make a giant walking robot.

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Or attach special XCell wheels to make it roll around.

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Here's how the robot sees the world.

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44 cool cars from the SEMA show in Las Vegas

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Kia A1A_Optima

Every year, the automotive world descends upon Las Vegas for the Specialty Equipment Market Association Show, transforming the city into a mecca of aftermarket modified cars. The result — usually — is odd, wacky, and awesome cars that you'll see at no other show.

Every year for SEMA, car companies and specialty tuners bring the coolest and craziest modified cars in their arsenal. Last year's SEMA show hosted more than 60,000 buyers of aftermarket car parts and introduced more than 2,000 new products.

SEMA wraps up this week at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

SEE ALSO: Lamborghini is the world's craziest super car maker — here's how it came to be

Every year, carmakers and aftermarket manufacturers gather at the Las Vegas Convention Center for the SEMA show.



There are cars people expect to find at a car show, ...



... such as this BMW M4, ...



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10 dos and donts for your dating profile photos

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tinder 4 x 3

Using Tinder or any other dating site can come with a boatload of anxiety.

One big way to work yourself up? Worrying you may be overselling yourself with your photo selection.

It makes sense that you'd want to post only the best photos on your dating profile. More people will want to swipe right — right?

Not so fast. 

We asked online dating expert Laurie Davis, founder of the online dating concierge service eFlirt and author of Love @ First Click, for some tips for making your Tinder photos represent not only your best self, but also your true self.

Read on for her tips and learn how to best represent yourself through online dating photos.

 

DON'T use creative camera angles and editing to get your face at the absolute best angle.

We're all guilty of editing and filtering and editing and filtering and editing again.

I'm really feeling this selfie of mine, but I have never looked the way I look in that picture — not even the day it was taken, honestly. It definitely isn't a totally realistic photo of me.

And according to Davis, that's all because of the angle.



DO keep the camera at eye level so it's true to your real-life appearance.

A photo like this one — snapped off the cuff and not edited — will show potential dates what I actually look like, rather than my idealized fun house-selfie version of my face.

"As a bonus, to the match who views it, it will feel like he or she is sitting across the table from you just as might on a date," Davis said.

There's nothing wrong with a little subliminal messaging!



DON'T focus only on extreme close-ups of your face.

It's tempting to only post photos from the neck up, but Davis said this is a no-no. Lots of people care about their potential dates' body type.

"If you only focus on photos from the waist up, it can seem like a lie of omission," Davis said.

This photo of Tech Insider deputy tech editor Steve Kovach is great and could definitely be included on his profile.

But if he only has pictures like that one, it might leave potential dates confused about what he actually looks like in person.



See the rest of the story at Business Insider

30 mind-blowing facts about the microbes that live inside of you

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Cell biology

The human microbiome is as elusive as it is important. You can't see it, but it's teeming with trillions of bacteria, viruses, fungi, and other microscopic organisms that line vital body parts such as your intestines, mouth, and skin.

These organisms have evolved with humans for hundreds of thousands of years, and as we probe deeper into their varied roles in the human body, we're gaining valuable insight into their essential roles in digestion, the immune system, cognition, and certain diseases.

There's still much we don't know about the microbiome, but the past 20 years of research have revealed some surprising facts about these tiny critters in our bodies.

Here are 30 eye-opening facts about the human microbiome, sourced from The American Museum of Natural History's new microbiome exhibit, The Secret World Inside You. The exhibit runs in NYC November 7, 2015 to August 14, 2016.

NEXT: Scientists keep finding more evidence that bacteria in your stomach are connected to your mood

CHECK OUT: The bacteria in your belly can determine what diet will work best for you

There are more microbes in the human body — a number estimated to be in the trillions — than there are stars in the Milky Way.



All of your microbes combined weigh about as much as your brain: about three pounds.



Microbes cover your skin from head to toe; and their diversity can vary depending upon your skin temperature, texture, thickness, humidity, and chemistry.



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Fly over an environmental nightmare the US just avoided

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Barack Obama just killed Keystone XL, a 1,179-mile-long pipeline that would have funneled 800,000 barrels of crude oil from Alberta, Canada, to the Texas Gulf Coast every day.

President Obama announced his decision Friday from the White House during a televised press conference.

Obama said Keystone XL wouldn't have helped lower gas prices or create that many jobs.

He also said the long-term contribution to climate change — possibly more than 22 billion metric tons of carbon pollution, according to Scientific American — wasn't worth the loss of America's global leadership on fighting emissions that exacerbate global warming.

"If we're going to prevent large parts of this Earth from becoming inhabitable, if not inhospitable ... we have to keep some fossil fuels in the ground," Obama said.

But there's another steep environmental cost Obama didn't mention: Had the White House approved Keystone XL, 54,000 square miles of pristine Alberta wilderness may have been razed to feed it.

"We're not saying the project is good or bad. We're just saying the scale and severity of what's happening in Alberta will make your spine tingle," Robert Johnson, a former Business Insider correspondent, wrote after flying over the Canadian oil sands in May 2012.

Keep scrolling to see Johnson's photo essay, which shows Canadian oil mining — a process in which tar-laden sand is dug from the ground and the oil is separated through a lengthy and messy process.

To get a look at the oil sand mines, we rented this Cessna 172, which the pilot was allowed to bring down to 1,000 feet. Through the open window we could see what really goes on in one of the most controversial places on the planet.



The Alberta oil sands are spread across more than 54,000 square miles but we're taking a look at just a small part of it. The red line is an approximate outline of the entire deposit — the green is where we'll be flying.



Thousands flock here to make real money in the oil sands, where creating synthetic crude begins in the strip mine.



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This 'Halo 5' concept art is downright gorgeous

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There's a new "Halo" game for the Xbox One — "Halo 5: Guardians"— and it's absolutely gorgeous. Even better, though, is the game's concept art. It's downright beautiful:

And that's just the beginning.

Tech Insider was sent two dozen concept art images from "Halo 5: Guardians," care of 343 Industries lead concept artist Darren Bacon; 343 Industries is the internal Microsoft studio in charge of the "Halo" franchise. Half of the images are Bacon's creation, and the other half are from Nicolas "Sparth" Bouvier, 343 Industries' art director. The images are presented below for your enjoyment — please enjoy!

Some of the concept art ended up directly informing the game, while some didn't. The city seen below, for instance, isn't a major setting in "Halo 5: Guardians.'





But this piece looks very similar to one the multiplayer maps in the game's "Warzone" mode.



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14 signs you have too much debt

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Most Americans carry some amount of debt — often a lot of it — and many of us might juggle a mortgage, car payment, and student loans without feeling overwhelmed.

But if you’ve ever struggled with a crushing amount of debt, you know the sinking, desperate feeling that follows you wherever you go. You know what it’s like to wonder how you got in this position — and how it feels to worry that you’ll never dig your way out.

Eventually, most people get to the point where they’ll do anything to escape the enormous weight of those monthly payments. In due course, they recognize thatsomething has to change, and stay up late figuring out ways to turn it all around.

Still, it usually starts with an epiphany of some kind, and sometimes even a “light bulb” moment. Other times, people don’t realize they have too much debt until they actually reach rock bottom, or until their everyday lives become impossible.

Getting into debt is easy, but realizing you’ve taken it too far takes courage and strength. Here’s how more than a dozen personal finance bloggers knew that “enough was enough” — and decided it was time to make a change.

SEE ALSO: Too many people are pretending to be rich

1. You’re adding to your balances every month.

“We realized we had too much debt when we were adding to it every month,” says Kelly Whalen of The Centsible Life.

When you’re not tracking your spending or watching those credit card balances closely, “adding to the pile” is easy to do. For Whalen, the key to turning her situation around was simply recognizing that her balances were growing in the first place.

“It was hard to notice that trend at first as we weren’t tracking our finances carefully and had always been fine,” she said. But once they started tracking their spending, they were able to make big changes and pay off their debts over time.

Glen Craig from Free From Broke also saw his rising debt balances as a sign it was time to change.

“I knew I had too much debt when, after paying my bills, my debt still went up because of interest,” he said.



2. You’re living paycheck to paycheck.

For financial coach Melissa Thomas, the realization came when she found herself living too close to the cuff. “We decided we had too much debt when we had to put Christmas on credit because we were living paycheck to paycheck,” she said.

Jason Vitug from Phroogal.com also knows what it’s like to live down to his last dollar. “I would count the days to payday so I could make all the minimum credit card payments so I wouldn’t be reported late,” said Jason, adding that he would then use his available credit to pay for monthly bills and food.

When your debt payments consume so much of your income that you’re living down to the wire, it’s time to do something about it. And that’s exactly what both Melissa and Jason did; over time, they became debt-free and claimed their freedom.



3. You partner up and realize you have double the debt.

Getting married is a joyous occasion, but what happens when you realize your spouse has just as much debt as you do?

That’s exactly what happened to Deacon from Well Kept Wallet when he married his wife and they combined finances; practically overnight, their joint debt burden surged.

“We made decent money but felt like we could never get ahead because of our debt payments,” he says. Fortunately, he and his wife tackled their responsibilities together and are now debt-free.



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We went LARPing — and it's not nearly as strange as you might think

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Live-action role-playing (or LARPing) was born on the fringes of American pop culture, a descendant of much-maligned hobbies like Dungeons and Dragons and other table games. 

In LARPing, players spend their weekend dressing up in costumes, adopting elaborate personae, and inhabiting a complex imagined world. 

The hobby, like most of "nerd" culture, has become increasingly mainstream.

Across the US, Canada, and Europe, LARPing groups are everywhere. There are more than 30 LARPing organizations in the US, each of which has tens of chapters and thousands of members.

We visited Alliance, one of the oldest live-action role-playing groups in the country, in central Pennsylvania, last year to figure out what LARPing is all about.

Faire Play, Alliance's headquarters, is a massive barn in Central Pennsylvania. We arrived early Saturday morning just as the LARPers at Alliance were waking up. The players were shaking off a long night. Most had arrived in costume on Friday night and played until nearly dawn.



Most of the players were filing into the "tavern," a large room built into the center of the barn. Everyone was waiting in line for eggs, bacon, pancakes, and coffee. Players pay $60 to spend the weekend at Alliance, which covers lodging and meals.



The Alliance headquarters is located on a sprawling 42-acre property. In addition to the tavern, the central barn has bedrooms for players and a backroom full of costumes, weapons, and other assorted LARPing detritus. The back lawn serves as the main battleground and is sprinkled with cabins for players to sleep in.



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Here’s a look at the environmental calamity the US just avoided

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Barack Obama just killed Keystone XL, a 1,179-mile-long pipeline that would have funneled 800,000 barrels of crude oil from Alberta, Canada, to the Texas Gulf Coast every day.

President Obama announced his decision Friday from the White House during a televised press conference.

Obama said Keystone XL wouldn't have helped lower gas prices or create that many jobs.

He also said the long-term contribution to climate change — possibly more than 22 billion metric tons of carbon pollution, according to Scientific American — wasn't worth the loss of America's global leadership on fighting emissions that exacerbate global warming.

"If we're going to prevent large parts of this Earth from becoming inhabitable, if not inhospitable ... we have to keep some fossil fuels in the ground," Obama said.

But there's another steep environmental cost Obama didn't mention: Had the White House approved Keystone XL, 54,000 square miles of pristine Alberta wilderness may have been razed to feed it.

"We're not saying the project is good or bad. We're just saying the scale and severity of what's happening in Alberta will make your spine tingle," Robert Johnson, a former Business Insider correspondent, wrote after flying over the Canadian oil sands in May 2012.

Keep scrolling to see Johnson's photo essay, which shows Canadian oil mining — a process in which tar-laden sand is dug from the ground and the oil is separated through a lengthy and messy process.

To get a look at the oil sand mines, we rented this Cessna 172, which the pilot was allowed to bring down to 1,000 feet. Through the open window we could see what really goes on in one of the most controversial places on the planet.



The Alberta oil sands are spread across more than 54,000 square miles but we're taking a look at just a small part of it. The red line is an approximate outline of the entire deposit — the green is where we'll be flying.



Thousands flock here to make real money in the oil sands, where creating synthetic crude begins in the strip mine.



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