Many shy away from traveling during hurricane season, and understandably so; hurricanes at their most tame can mean non-stop rain during your would-be "fun in the sun" getaway, and at their worst can lead to forced evacuations, major destruction, and -- in extreme cases -- death.
In these cases, the storms often take unpredictable turns; fortunately, while never 100-percent accurate, weather forecasting these days is quite advanced and therefore, some travelers purposefully choose the hurricane season for spending their vacation days. Why?
Well, hurricane season -- in Mexico, the Caribbean, and beyond -- sees fewer tourists and drastically lower prices, as well as some pretty gnarly waves for hardcore surfers who hunt storms in order to take advantage of the swells they create.
But is it really safe to travel during hurricane season? Considering Mexico is one of the most popular destinations among our users year-round, we decided to chat with experts to find out if traveling to Mexico during its hurricane season is actually an "okay" thing to do. Here's the scoop.
When is Mexico's hurricane season?
Mexico's hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but the country is at its highest risk of strong storms from August through October. For example, Category-4 Hurricane Odile hit Los Cabos in late September 2014 and Hurricane Patricia caused similar destruction in Puerto Vallartain October of last year.
As Jason Meyers, a storm shield meteorologist, advised us, "If you want to avoid tropical storms all together, travel there in the colder months of December through March, or go very early or late in the hurricane season, like in November or June. April and May are also outside of hurricane season."
Are some destinations in Mexico better protected from storms and hurricanes than others?
Most experts are quick to state that playing an "odds" game during Mexico's hurricane season is a risky one. "Every mile of the coast of Mexico is vulnerable to a hurricane," Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, told Oyster.com. "It only takes one hurricane hitting your location to make it a bad year."
Of course, if you're not set on a beach location, inland areas such as Mexico City rarely see hurricanes of any magnitude. In fact, the capital is often a relocation destination during hurricanes. And while destinations along the Yucatan Peninsula often see a large number of the country's hurricanes, Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explained to us that "the probability of a strike decreases from north to south. Cancunhas had, and will have, violent hurricanes." So travelers may consider destinations south of it, such as Tulum. However, we should note that Professor Emanuel gave Belize, significantly further south of Cancun than Tulum, as his example of a viable alternative, saying "Hurricanes do occur in Belize, but are somewhat less likely there. The west side of the Yucatan has quite a few storms, but almost all of these have been weakened by their passage across the peninsula."
So yes, we'd be remiss to adamantly state that one coastal area of Mexico is guaranteed to be safer than another, but there are geographical factors you can look for that generally point to a destination being relatively well-protected. For example, Jeremy Rolph, a forecast consultant and meteorologist for Surfline.com who also acts as an assistant in research at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University, explained to us that storms generally don't form in areas along the equator, and bays provide natural protection.
Additionally, both Meyers and Emanuel agreed that Mexico's Pacific Coast is often a better bet -- if you're going to bet, that is. "Almost all hurricanes that form off Mexico's Pacific coast travel westward, out to sea, and do not affect Mexico, but unfortunately there are exceptions, Patricia being a case in point," Emanuel said. "In general, the risk is higher along Mexico's Atlantic seaboard than its Pacific." Popular Pacific Coast destinations in Mexico include Puerto Vallarta(which is also protected by a bay) and San Jose del Cabo.
How will the 2016 hurricane season be different?
Meyers confirmed that the Pacific Coast is less likely to be hit by a hurricane, particularly this season, saying, "If we're playing the probabilities game, you'd be better off on the Pacific Coast this year since the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than the Pacific hurricane season thanks to the weakening El Niño and strengthening La Niña." Unfortunately, though, the 2016 hurricane season is looking particularly threatening for both coasts. According toCrown Weather Services, this season will be significantly stormier than last; in fact, they're predicting that it will be the most active since 2012. Accuweather.com reports that the steepest increase in storms will occur between August 20 and September 11 this year.
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