LONDON — As the UK edges towards Brexit with little sign of an agreement, the once-unthinkable prospect of a no-deal Brexit has become a realistic one.
On Thursday, the UK government will publish its first batch of no-deal technical notices, advising businesses and consumers on how it is preparing for the prospect of leaving the EU empty-handed.
But while ministers continue to insist that "no deal would be better than a bad deal," the truth is that the consequences of such a messy exit would stretch to almost every corner of British life.
They would threaten cancer treatments, food and medicine supplies, insurance policies, and the functioning of the NHS, as well as the existence of entire industries within the UK.
Here are just some of the things that could happen if May fails to secure a Brexit deal.
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The NHS could run out of drugs
Most people take the day-to-day functioning of the NHS for granted. But the flow of medical supplies — cancer medicines, vaccines, clinical devices, and blood — are dependent on complex supply chains across Europe which are designed to be traded within the single market.
IN a leaked letter between NHS chiefs reported this week, Simon Stevens, chief executive of NHS England, warned: "Public health and disease control coordination could also suffer, and our efforts to reassure, retain and attract the European workforce on which the NHS relies could also be jeopardized."
Around 45 million packs of medicine go from the UK to Europe every month and 37 million packs travel in the opposite direction. Every single one of those needs to be licensed and tested and certified by the European medicines regulator.
At the moment, a test in the UK is valid in the EU and a test in the EU is valid in the UK. If the UK left without a deal, that would cease to be the case, according to the Brexit Health Alliance.
Licenses held by a UK company to sell medicines in the EU would become void overnight, meaning that 361 products (37% of the market) could not be sold in Europe. Many of those are life-saving drugs.
Conversely, where licenses were held in the EU, there would likely be the disruption of their supply in the UK. That means the UK would be forced to find an arrangement for the 978 medicines sold across the country which were issued under EU rules.
Several pharma firms like AstraZeneca — which produces cancer, heart and lung drugs — have started to increase their stockpiles in Europe for exactly this reason. The company also says it would have to test medicines in both the UK and EU to ensure they could cross the border in all scenarios.
But AstraZeneca conceded that it could not guarantee its emergency planning would succeed.
Customs checks could delay treatment of critical injuries
Customs checks at borders would also pose a huge problem for the care and treatment of people critically injured during emergencies.
Accident and emergency trauma packs — which are full of equipment and medicines — are often flown into the UK within hours of being ordered.
During times of large-scale emergencies, such as terrorist attacks, the short time frame is especially necessary because a large number of people are suddenly injured.
Hospitals tend not to stockpile these supplies because they have a short shelf-life. Doing so would mean many packs were wasted at great expense.
Under a no-deal scenario, customs checks between the UK and EU would increase dramatically because the UK would be a third country with no arrangement in place to ease the flow of goods. The prospect of having to wait even a few extra hours for such supplies could be a matter of life and death.
There would be huge queues as British trucks are barred from entering Europe
British lorries would be barred from entering Europe under a no deal Brexit, according to an industry chief who spoke to Business Insider.
James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association (FTA), told BI that a no deal Brexit would see Britain revert to an old set of international arrangements which handed it just 103 permits to cover the 300,000 journeys made by British trucks make to Europe every year.
That would, in essence, mean the bulk of Britain's lorry fleet was blocked from entering Europe the day after Brexit in March next year, should May fail to secure the transitional deal which is still being negotiated. This would affect hundreds if not thousands of businesses with EU customers.
That, in turn, would spell chaos at Britain's ports, which are unprepared for such an outcome. Dover does not currently hold the necessary capacity to hold the lorries queueing to move across the border, meaning miles-long tailbacks on motorways leading to the port were inevitable.
The government is reportedly considering a plan to turn a 13-mile stretch of the M26 in Kent into a lorry park in order to cope with those tailbacks. Officials are reportedly considering turning the road into a "holding area" for up to 1,400 goods vehicles to try and ease the gridlock as 10,000 lorries a day suddenly required customs checks to enter France.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider